Pitches, Bowling Tools and Reserves β Where the Iconic Series Will Be Won and Lost
Two days remaining.
The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.
Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.
It's tough to make runs, right?
Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.
Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".
Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.
There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.
Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.
Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.
A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.
An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.
Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.
Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.
Test cricket is about solving problems.
When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.
Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.
Whatβs happening with the Australia seamers?
On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.
Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.
Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.
Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.
The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.
On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.
In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.
Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.
The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.
The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.
In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected β The tourists should pay attention.
Tough at the top
Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?
Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.
Not anymore.
Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.
Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.
The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.
His batting average increases when the pace increases.
By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.
After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.
Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.
It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.
Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.
Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.
In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.
Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.
Spin war
Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior β spin.
Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.
England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.
It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.
In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.
Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.
Recall the potency of fast bowling?
It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.
In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.
Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.
Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.
Favorable Conditions?
The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.
Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.
Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.
The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.
Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.
This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.
The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca β scene of many an England humbling β but the shiny new Perth Stadium.
It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.
The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.
The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.
Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.
Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.
The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.
The home side have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match β against India last year.
Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.
England often complicate floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.
The issue in {day-night matches|
